Merger arbitrage offers unique profit opportunities by capturing the spread between current market prices and announced deal values. Our M&A Tracker provides systematic analysis of deal probability, regulatory timelines, and risk-adjusted returns to help you identify the most attractive arbitrage opportunities.
From cash deals to stock-for-stock transactions, analyze deal structures, regulatory hurdles, and completion probabilities. Built for hedge funds, institutional investors, and sophisticated individuals, this template helps you navigate complex M&A transactions while managing downside risk.
Calculate gross and net arbitrage spreads for cash deals, stock deals, and mixed consideration transactions. The template adjusts for dividends, special distributions, and collar provisions to provide accurate spread calculations and annualized returns.
Evaluate deal completion probability based on regulatory complexity, antitrust concerns, financing conditions, and shareholder approval requirements. The template includes a scoring system that incorporates historical completion rates for similar transactions.
Calculate risk-adjusted returns accounting for deal break probability, downside protection, and time to completion. The template helps you compare different arbitrage opportunities on a risk-adjusted basis.
Optimize position sizes based on deal probability, spread size, and correlation with other M&A positions. The template ensures proper diversification across different deal types and regulatory jurisdictions.
Monitor regulatory approval processes including antitrust reviews, SEC filings, and international regulatory approvals. The template tracks key milestones and provides alerts for important deadlines and announcements.
Track shareholder voting requirements, proxy filing dates, and voting results. The template calculates the probability of shareholder approval based on voting patterns and shareholder composition.
Monitor financing conditions for leveraged buyouts and debt-financed transactions. Track credit market conditions, covenant compliance, and financing availability that could impact deal completion.
Track potential competing bids, unsolicited offers, and auction processes. The template helps you position for bidding wars and assess the likelihood of higher offers.
The template calculates spreads by comparing current market prices to deal consideration, adjusting for dividends, special distributions, and deal structure. It provides both gross spreads and annualized returns based on expected closing timelines.
The template evaluates regulatory complexity, antitrust concerns, financing conditions, shareholder approval requirements, and management cooperation. It uses historical data to assess completion probability for similar deals.
For stock deals, the template calculates exchange ratios, tracks acquirer stock price movements, and adjusts for collar provisions. It helps you decide whether to hedge the acquirer position or remain unhedged.
Yes, the template includes international regulatory processes, currency hedging considerations, and cross-border approval requirements. It adjusts for different regulatory timelines and approval processes.
The template tracks deal break fees, termination conditions, and potential downside scenarios. It calculates maximum loss potential and helps you assess risk-adjusted returns incorporating break probability.
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