Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio: The Complete Spreadsheet Guide
Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio is built on a single insight: economic cycles are predictable, and a truly diversified portfolio should perform in all four. Here's how to build, track, and rebalance it with live data.
Andrew Grosser
June 1, 2026 • 11 min read
Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio is one of the most studied investment frameworks in finance. Built on the premise that economic environments rotate between four regimes (rising growth, falling growth, rising inflation, falling inflation), it allocates assets to perform in each. Dalio's original allocation — 30% stocks, 40% long-term bonds, 15% intermediate bonds, 7.5% gold, 7.5% commodities — has produced strong risk-adjusted returns over decades. This guide shows how to implement, track, and rebalance it using Sourcetable's live data and institutional analysis tools.
Quick Comparison
| Task | Previously Required | With Sourcetable |
|---|---|---|
| Live asset prices | Bloomberg / manual | 500+ APIs auto-refresh |
| Correlation analysis | Python + pandas | Natural language AI |
| Rebalancing calc | Excel manually | Automated suggestions |
| Performance vs SPY | Custom code | Built-in benchmarking |
| Risk metrics (VaR) | Quant tools | Natural language |
The All Weather Philosophy
Dalio's insight is that most portfolios are implicitly bets on one economic environment — usually rising growth with low inflation (the conditions of the 1980s-2000s bull market). The All Weather framework identifies four economic environments and allocates risk evenly across all four. The result is a portfolio designed to lose less in bad environments and participate sufficiently in good ones — generating strong risk-adjusted returns across full economic cycles.
The Classic Allocation
The original All Weather allocation: 30% US stocks (broad market), 40% long-term US Treasury bonds (20+ year), 15% intermediate US Treasury bonds (7-10 year), 7.5% gold, 7.5% diversified commodities. In ETF terms: VTI or SPY, TLT, IEF, GLD, PDBC or DJP. The heavy bond allocation surprises many investors — it reflects the role long-duration bonds play in protecting against deflationary recessions.
All Weather allocation:
- ✅ 30% Stocks (US equities — VTI, SPY, or VOO)
- ✅ 40% Long-term bonds (20+ yr Treasury — TLT)
- ✅ 15% Intermediate bonds (7-10 yr Treasury — IEF)
- ✅ 7.5% Gold (GLD or physical gold ETFs)
- ✅ 7.5% Commodities (PDBC, DJP, or sector ETFs)
Building It in Sourcetable
Connect your data sources once — Sourcetable auto-refreshes prices for all five asset classes daily. Ask: 'Create an All Weather Portfolio tracker with current holdings, live prices, current weights, target weights, and drift from target. Show which positions need rebalancing.' The platform pulls live ETF prices from Polygon.io, calculates current weights, computes drift from targets, and shows the rebalancing trades needed — with dollar amounts based on your portfolio size.
Correlation Analysis
The All Weather's power comes from low correlations between its components. Run a rolling correlation analysis: 'Calculate the 30-day and 1-year rolling correlation between all five All Weather components from 2010-2024. Show how correlations changed during 2020 COVID crash, 2022 rate hike cycle, and 2008 financial crisis.' Sourcetable's Dalio-methodology implementation calculates these metrics and flags when correlations are rising — a warning sign that diversification is temporarily breaking down.
Performance Analysis and Benchmarking
Measure the portfolio against benchmarks: 'Compare All Weather Portfolio performance vs SPY from 2010-2024. Show CAGR, Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio, maximum drawdown, and worst calendar year. Calculate how it would have performed during the 2008 financial crisis and 2022 inflation shock.' The 2022 environment — rising rates and falling stocks — is particularly interesting for All Weather analysis, as its heavy bond allocation suffered in a way the framework wasn't initially designed for.
Rebalancing Automation
Most investors rebalance annually or when drift exceeds a threshold (5% or 10% from target). Sourcetable can calculate this automatically: 'Alert me when any All Weather component drifts more than 5% from target allocation. Calculate the trades needed to rebalance and estimate transaction costs.' Set this as a recurring analysis and Sourcetable will flag rebalancing needs as prices move — no manual tracking required.
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